Ukraine War- The Possible outcomes for its climax
Drone and missile attacks have caused numerous ships to be redirected out of the Red Sea. Russia began a military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But lately, the West has become concerned about Russia’s military prowess as well as its ability to produce weapons and ammunition, as well as Ukraine’s reliance on Western help, weapons, and ammunition. This is true even though the US promised to provide Ukraine with $61 billion in military aid in April 2024.
Analysts are still unsure about how the war will finish, with possible scenarios including prolonged fighting or negotiations for a peaceful resolution.
The War continues
According to some analysts, there might be a protracted battle in Ukraine by 2024. Despite their warnings that this depends on Ukraine’s defense, which has relied on military assistance from the West, ammunition and weaponry.
In an article for the International Centre for Defence and Security, Marek Kohv argued that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in 2024 due to the depletion of military resources on both sides, Russia’s commitment to its objectives, and the unlikely near-term change in leadership. To enhance Ukraine’s position and lead to a potential 2025 resolution, Kohv called for increased Western military aid and long-term support for Ukraine’s defense industry.
He also emphasized the need for stricter sanctions towards Russia to influence its leadership and strangle its war machine. David Lewis, a professor of global politics at the University of Exeter, highlighted that Russia’s territorial gains since the war began have been small, only gaining a further 11% of Ukrainian territory. He anticipated renewed Russian offensives in the spring and summer of 2024, stating that as long as Ukraine maintains adequate supplies, it would be difficult for the Russian military to make major territorial gains. He acknowledged a continuing dynamic deadlock in the land war but also highlighted the possibility of a more serious Russian breakthrough.
But some pundits contend that the US Congress’s approval of $61 billion in military aid to Ukraine guaranteed the country’s ability to fight until 2024. According to Michael Clarke, a visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London, who spoke to the Associated Press in April 2024, the military assistance “offers Ukraine the prospect of staying in the war this year” and “sometimes in warfare you’ve just got to stay in it.” The Royal United Services Institute’s director of military sciences, Matthew Savill, concurred, stating that Ukraine may “start preparations for operations in 2025” and that the assistance could “probably only help stabilise the Ukrainian position for this year.”
Negotiations arises
Even though the fighting is still going on, attempts are being made to investigate possible routes to peace. The goal of a peace conference that Switzerland will host in June 2024 is to provide a framework for putting an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Despite not receiving an invitation to the meeting, Russia will eventually need to get involved in order to put an end to the crisis, according to Switzerland and Ukraine.
Diplomats from Ukraine have acknowledged that negotiations are necessary. The deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, said in an interview with The Economist in May 2024 that “such wars can only end with treaties” and that “right now, both sides are jockeying for ‘the most favourable position’ ahead of potential talks.” Achieving “meaningful negotiations,” he added, was considered a long-term goal, possibly “in the second half of 2025 at the earliest.”
There is also the possibility that a more extensive conversation may begin with the forthcoming summit. The foreign minister of Ukraine emphasized in an interview with Foreign Policy that same month that the summit’s goal was “to unite countries who share principles and approaches that they will build further actions on.” He added that since “you cannot put the war to an end without both parties,” talks with Russia might resume after the conference.
But there are still issues with negotiations. According to Dr. Jade Glynn, a research fellow at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies, said Russia and Ukraine’s plans for a peace deal were “mutually exclusive”. In February 2024, she informed Euronews that as part of a deal with Russia, Ukraine would want adherence to its recognized borders from 1991 and the imposition of a “genuine form of deterrence against any future Russian attack.” On the other hand, Russia would like to have “full control” over the portions of Ukrainian land that it already occupies, including four areas that it believes belong to Russia by right. She added that the only concession made would be for whatever was left of Ukraine to “be able to join the EU,” and that Russia would seek a “final say on who can be president of Ukraine.” This was “unacceptable to Ukraine,” she concluded.
Ukraine loses to Russia
A number of analysts have voiced concerns on the likelihood of a Ukrainian defeat in 2024.
In an interview with BBC News in April 2024, General Sir Richard Barrons, the previous commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, emphasized the risk. There was a “serious risk,” according to him, that Ukraine would lose the war in 2024. Asserting that the nation “may come to feel it can’t win” and that “when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?”, he linked this to potential concerns within Ukraine that it may emerge triumphant. He also expected a large Russian onslaught in the summer, with the goal of gaining a great deal of territory and possibly breaking past Ukrainian defenses.
Ben Barry, a senior fellow for ground warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank focused on defense and security, voiced similar fears in March 2024. In an interview with CNBC, he noted that Russia was “gaining momentum” in its conflict with Ukraine, which aligned with continuing worries about Ukraine’s lack of weapons and ammunition as well as “stalled” military supplies from the US. Consequently, he contended that “portions of Kyiv’s front line could be at risk of collapse in the worst-case scenario.”
Russia loses to Ukraine
Ben Barry, a senior fellow for ground warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank focused on defense and security, voiced similar fears in March 2024. In an interview with CNBC, he noted that Russia was “gaining momentum” in its conflict with Ukraine, which aligned with continuing worries about Ukraine’s lack of weapons and ammunition as well as “stalled” military supplies from the US. Nonetheless, some researchers believe that in 2024, Ukraine will be able to overcome Russia.
Feng Yujun, a professor at Peking University in China, made the case for a possible Ukrainian triumph in a piece published in the Economist in April 2024.He identified four causes for this. He began by highlighting the “extraordinary” degree of national cohesion and resilience exhibited by Ukrainians.