President Xi Jinping must have learned that several regions of Europe had changed drastically since his last visit there five years ago during his tour there this week. The days of China being considered a must-visit country for investments are long gone in the heyday of economic globalization. Rather, a “de-risk” approach is favoured by European politicians, who want to shift supply chains and investments away from the second-biggest economy in the world.
Beijing has also changed its opinion of Europe, based on what he said in Paris. Undoubtedly, this is a redoubled charm effort aimed at luring European investors to China in the future. However, Xi also sent stern warnings to the EU about its economic protectionism and present diplomatic posture.
Though all three of the nations he is visiting are friendly toward him, achieving a diplomatic or economic reconciliation will be extremely difficult. This is mostly because of how internal politics and economy have developed in China and Europe, as well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Therefore, Xi’s primary goal in going on his European visit is to limit damage and keep relations with Europe from getting worse than they already have with Washington. Along the path to China’s goal of a more multipolar world, he is also trying to take advantage of divides within Europe regarding Ukraine and US relations.
Economy:
In terms of the economy, China has resolutely pursued industrial policies that will allow Beijing to advance up the export value chain and position itself as a major player in high-end manufacturing. Beijing’s goal is to become the export leader for solar panels, lithium batteries, and electric cars rather than cheap toys.
Additionally, the Chinese economy is currently undergoing a difficult but necessary transformation as it shifts its growth model from excessively depending on the real estate industry to relying on exports of high-value manufactured goods. One important market for those products will be Europe. However, Chinese businesses face fierce competition from their European counterparts in both developed and emerging nations, with some support from the government.
Regarding the EU’s complaint about the “overcapacity” of electric vehicles and other areas where Beijing is eager to foster commercial success, President Xi made few concessions in Paris. These goods are a part of the “new productive force” that China claims would propel its economy forward.
Europe is carefully reevaluating its excessive reliance on China and other nations with divergent political philosophies as a result of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the economic disruption caused by COVID-19.
Political elites in Europe are likewise worried about possible job losses due to Chinese competition in their upscale industry. Believing that such structural tensions can be resolved by a five-day state visit would be naive.
Political:
There is still no progress being made on the diplomatic front. To mend the harm done to its relations with Europe, some in Europe are hoping Beijing will reverse course on the conflict in Ukraine. However, China rarely modifies its priorities when it comes to international relations.
China has always adhered to the non-interference principle in the internal affairs of other nations. This is valued by many countries in the Global South and is in line with its objectives in preserving stability and sovereignty.
In the meanwhile, it cherishes its tight ties with Russia, especially given that both nations are wary of perceived Western intrusion and US hegemony. Beijing’s goal to preserve stable relations with the US and Europe must be balanced with its diplomatic and economic support for Russia.
According to European nations, Beijing’s greatest accomplishment to date has been demonstrating its willingness to stop Putin from considering the use of nuclear weapons. However, European leaders should not anticipate that China will support them in the actual battle.